Since 1932, an incumbent US president has never failed to win re-election, unless a recession has occurred during their time in office. If Trump loses then I will miss him, in the same way I missed 'Dubya' when he left...
Biden is favourite to become president next week, as long as Trump does not contest the result and (as promised) refuse to leave the White House. The effect of the results on capital markets is likely to be less dramatic than feared. The main danger is a long post-election legal dispute surrounding the criticised postal voting system. Our wealth management portfolios have only 7% in US equities and currently have zero USD exposure, as we are actively hedging back to GBP.
Trump would like to continue his programme of corporate tax cuts and removing red tape, whilst Biden plans to spend on infrastructure and invest in green projects, whilst curbing large tech dominance and resolving the trade war with China. Either way, both of these manifestos may benefit the themes within our portfolios.
SEPTEMBER & OCTOBER PERFORMANCE (to date)
We are very pleased with how our wealth management portfolios have behaved during September and October. Whilst the FTSE has fallen by 1.19% since the beginning of September, all of our investment portfolios have made gains. Furthermore, since the beginning of the year all of our investment portfolios are in positive territory (our best performing up by 11%) whilst the FTSE is down 24%.
Our team of financial advisors and wealth managers have been seeking to bolster investment exposure to one of the key themes we see as being a driver of returns for our financial advice clients over the next decade – sustainable energy. After much research and virtual meetings with those providers that are serious about this trend, last week we allocated capital across all our wealth management portfolios to the Schroder Global Energy Transition Investment Fund.
We chose this investment fund as it has the purest play on sustainable energy and the largest exposure to Europe, where the initiative investing towards greener energy is most politically advanced. As this is a relatively new investment fund, we were able to get into the much cheaper founders’ share class.
Portfolio A + 4.89%
Portfolio B + 3.86%
Portfolio C + 2.64%
Portfolio D + 1.47%